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KNOW WHEN TO SELL
 
Keeping an Eye On Asset Growth What to Make Of Manager Changes
Monitoring Fund-Family Growth Spotting Yellow Pages
Knowing Where to Sell Seven Good Reason To Sell

 
Know your funds, know yourself, and never make the same mistake twice

SMART INVESTORES ALWAYS take a fresh look at their holdings. They do not fall in love or get angry-they simply reassess their investments’ potential. Mutual funds change and you have to be ready to sell when those change indicate a problem.

Here are some important warning signs.

These aren’t sell signals per se; We talk about specific reasons for selling a fund later in this section. Think of these as signals that a change for the worse may be in the way.

 
 
Keeping an Eye On Asset Growth

As funds attract new investors and grow larger, their returns often become sluggish, weighed down by too many assets. They lose their potency, and their returns revert to the average for their group. Some funds stop accepting money from new investors when their assets grow too large. Ideally, a fund will do that well before it is bloated, but most don’t.

Excessive size often explains why so many once-hot funds become mediocre.

According to Morningstar studies where assets growth can be the bigger problems, and we have found that you must pay the most attention to funds that focus on small-cap or growth category are the most vulnerable to asset bloat.

Booming assets can also burden other small-cap or growth funds, but the negative effects may not be as great.

Concerns about how much of a single company a fund can reasonably own will force the manager of a growing funds to invest in more stocks, or bigger companies, or both. A fund with a burgeoning asset base will often trade less frequently because its activities can affect a stock’s price. Because the manger had a lot of money to throw at a single stock, that buying can drive up the stock price by upsetting the balance between supply and demand-more money will be chasing shares of that stock. It is a virtual impossible for a manager to buy all the shares wanted at one time, so the last share purchased could cost significantly more than the first. Because of this effect, a growing fund can create its own headwind, hurting performance by trading too frequently.

No matter whether the fund buys more stocks, bigger ones trades them more slowly, or all the above, the manager has to make some kind of change. And as a shareholder, you need to be aware of the change, and consider whether this altered fund fits into your portfolio.

 
 
Knowing What to Make Of Manager Changes

Mutual funds are only as good as the people behind them: the fund managers.

Because the fund manager is the person who is most responsible for a fund ‘s performance, many investors wonder if they should sell a fund when their manager leaves.

The short answer is , it depends; that’s why this is a yellow flag, not a red one. It’s possible that the new manager will do just as well as –and maybe even better than-the old. And some types of funds are less affected by manager changes than others. For example, managers of index funds are not actively choosing stocks; they’re simply mimicking a benchmark. Thus, manager changes at index funds are less important than manager changes at actively managed funds.

Whenever your fund undergoes a change, it’s worthwhile to check the analysis report of that fund. A fund company will often claim that a manager change is just incidental and that everything is business as usual. That may be the case, but our analysis is always skeptical. They assess the likely impact of the change by looking at factors such as whether the departing manager was the only person at the helm or worked as part of a team, and what kind of analyst support the incoming manager can draw up on. Our analysts also take a hard look at the incoming manager’s experience, including his or her record running other mutual funds.

 
 
Monitoring Fund-Family Growth, Mergers, or Acquisitions

Maybe the family behind your funds is adding some new funds to its lineup. Or may be a bigger company is going to buy it. Why should you care? After all, your manager will still be there calling the shots. Such changes can matter a surprise amount, because they can distract managers from doing their job-running investors funds.

Fund managers can lose their focus when their families launch new funds, and working on those new funds means that the managers are spread very thin.

Changes in fund company ownership also can lead to a slow down in performance.

Robertson Stephens(now called RS Funds) spent a large part of 1998 trying to cut ties with owner Bank of America. The group finally succeeded, but its funds suffered. Nearly all its offering had subpar returns in 1998, and the mangers admitted that the company’s business issues were distracting.

 
 
Spotting Yellow Pages

How can you find out if your funds are on the verge of change? For starters, keep tabs in your fund families. Regularly visit their Web sites looking for news of growth plans and new fund launches. And scan whatever fund company marketing jam your mailbox. Pay attention to what independent sources have to say about your funds and your fund families. Scan our news and see what other investors in your funds will cover any significant changes that the fund has undergone.
Finally, check up on your funds periodically to make sure the status quo hasn’t changed.

What do their assets look like? Are their managers still in place? Is anything notable going on which the fund family? Some investors prefer to check on their funds monthly.

Lots of us quickly look over our funds every day, but that’s much more often than necessary. Looking over your funds each quarter should be often enough for you to keep on top of any significant changes.

If you find that changes many be afoot, ask questions. If your fund family is launching a new fund that sounds a lot like the funds you already own, call the family’s customer support number and ask how the funds will differ and if this will mean more work for your fund managers. Or if you’re worried about asset size, find out if the family plans to close the fund anytime soon.

 
 

Knowing Where to Sell

The first step in deciding whether to sell is identifying why you own the fund. What was your rational for buying it? Did you admire the portfolio manager’s track record? Then you’ll need to keep an eye open for manager changes. Did you love the industries the fund invested in? then you need to look for changes to the portfolio’s sector weightings. Did you buy the fund to fill the large-cap value slot in your portfolio? Then you should pay particular attention to its style.

The tricky part is figuring out when to sell. Most of us can agree on what to look for when buying a fund-good risk-adjusted returns, long manager tenure, and so on-but we part ways on when to sell. None of us wants to undermine our returns by buying and selling at the wrong times. Yet some situations almost demand that we hit the sell button.

 
 

Seven Good Reason To Sell

You need to Rebalance: Even if your investment goals have remained the same and you have not tinkered with your asset allocation, you will probably need to get your portfolio mix back to its original state. If your stock funds didn’t fare well in a given year, rebalancing probably will require putting more money in those laggards.

The Fundamentals Have Changed: Presumably, you buy a small-value fund because you want exposure to small-value stocks. If the manager starts buying large-value stocks, you may have a problem. You may now have multiple large-value funds in your portfolio and no small-value fund. You may need to sell one of your large-value funds and pick another small-value one to restore your original balance styles.

Be careful how you define a change in style. Sometimes a manager’s stocks will change, but his or her strategy won’t.

We mentioned that a manager change should be a yellow flag. To decide whether you should sell, you need to assess how good the replacement manager is. If the replacement already has a long-term record at a similar fund, then it should be easy to figure out if he or she is a worthy successor. If it’s a manager from the same firm who doesn’t have much of a record, take a look at the record of other funds in the same asset class. Some families have deep other cases you’ll find that the firm do a lousy job at most of their funds in an asset class and you were holding the only good one. If that’s the case, it’s time to bail out.

You Misunderstood the fundamentals: Closely related to changing fundamentals are misunderstood fundamentals. If you buy a compact disc that’s cracked or a shirt that doesn’t fit, you return it. Sometimes investments need to be returned, too.

If your fund is overpriced, you could save a lot of money and improve your returns by picking a cheaper option.

The fund Isn’t Living up to Your Expectation: Although one year of under –performance may be nothing to worry about, two or three years of falling behind can get frustrating, to say the least. Before cutting the fund loose, through, be sure that you’re comparing your underperformance to an appropriate benchmark.

Taxes are particularly important in making your decision. If you have owned your fund for a long time, you many have built up significant gains, resulting in a tax hit when you sell. Your new pick would have to make many percentage points per year more to make up for the tax damage. If you think you can do better but want to avoid the taxes, out new money to work in a new fund. On the other hand, if your fund is down enough, you can give yourself a tax break by selling. It could be a win-win deal.

Surprisingly, you may also need to sell if your fund is returning more than 10% per year, it’s probably taking on more risk to achieve that return then you would expect to come from the “boring ” part of your portfolio.

Your Investment Goal Have Changed: You don’t invest to win some imaginary race, but to meet your financial goals. As your objectives change, your investments should change as well. Suppose you start investing in a balance fund with the goal of buying a house within the next five years. If you get married and your spouse already owns a house, you many decide to use that money for retirement instead. In that case, you may decide to use that money for retirement instead. In that case, you might sell the balanced fund and buy a portfolio of stock funds. Your goal and the time until you draw in your investment have changed. The investment should, too. For the same reason, bonds should become increasingly prominent in your portfolio as you near your goal.

You Can Get A Tax Break: if your fund account is in the red, it might make sense for you to sell and take a loss that you can use to offset future taxable gains. Selling sooner is instead of later is a particular good idea if the fund looks poor for any of the preceding reasons. You can even sell a good fund if you really need the tax break;

You Just Can’t Take It Anymore: Even meeting your goals isn’t worth it if you develop ulcers or wind up sleep-deprived along the way. Maybe your fund is so volatile that no even the vision of your brand-new house calms you down-every time the fund takes a dip, you see yourself losing another room off your dream house. Sell, by all means (so long as you never buy the fund or a fund like it again).

The moral Know your funds, know yourself, and never make the same mistake twice. To avoid getting in that situation again, pay particular attention to how your prospective fund invests and do the gut check. Examine the fund’s worst annual and quarterly losses and ask yourself if you would be able to stick out those periods, not knowing if things might get worse, without undue stress.

 
 

 

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